转载的关于gme的分析

Firstly, all of you diamond hands and smooth-brains are hereby promoted to Brigadier General today. Paper hands should be ashamed to succumbing to the pressure from dementor hedge funds.

I would also like to preface this post with the fact that this is not a war on billionaires, the wealthy yada yada, but it may well be described as a resistance against injustice, inequiality, rigged rules, uneven playing field etc which has been rampant on Wall Street forever.

Billionaires are not baddies, at least not all of them. It’s what they decide to do with their wealth that is the problem. Using one’s wealth to perpetuate inequality and injustice is not cool. If all hedge funds were dismantled tomorrow, there will be absolutely no negative consequences to society or social fabric. Hedge funds are not the greatest capital allocators. In fact they are shit at it and the last couple of weeks have proven it.

Using wealth to propel humankind to become multiplanetary species, solving climate change, building infrastructure, promoting social capital, improving fairness, leveling the playing field that’s super cool!

Sending lots of love to the following billionaires / millionaires: Elon, Chamath, Ryan Cohen, Peter Thiel, Dave Portnoy, Mark Cuban even Warren Buffett and Dr Michael Burry

Fuck you’s: Gabe Plotkin (Melvin Capital), Steve Cohen (Point72), Leon Shaulov and Rob Crespi (Maplelane Capital), Ken Griffin (Citadel)


Now to the main part. What you fellow smooth-brains and soft-heads have discovered is called a ‘market inefficiency’ and you are correcting it. The market is acting exactly like it’s intended to act. You are not the problem, you are actually the solution.

Why fundamentals don’t matter?

Fundamentals stopped mattering the moment $GME’s short interest breached 100% of the available float. See, markets should work as a two way function (you should be able to derive x from y and y from x). There is no possibility at all to buy more than 100% of the available float at any point in time, so why would it be possible to short more than 100% of the float? Why would the market allow such an asymmetric property? Well it shouldn’t and the market would and is correcting that.

So what does matter?

What really matters now is first principles. Yes, exactly like Papa Elon resumes most of his thought processes as far away as possible from foolish abstractions (read ‘fundamentals’) down to first principles, this is exactly the same thing what the market is doing right now.

The fools at CNBC (fuck you Wapner - hope you are reading this), CNN, Boomerberg have described the price as being irrational, devoid of logic and reason. So let’s break this down for them starting from first principles, Economics 101.

Supply and demand form the most crucial concepts of economics. Whether you are an academic, farmer, banker, hedge fund loser, smooth-brain redditor or a CNBC reporter, the basic premise of supply and demand equilibrium is integrated into your daily actions. Only after understanding the basics of this can the more complicated aspects be mastered.

So let’s look at the demand and supply of $GME shares

Demand side:

  • Bullish investors - it is no secret that a lot of the investors have taken a position after the narrative around $GME’s business model and future prospects are significantly more optimistic with Ryan Cohen now in the driving seat. Now that brankruptcy is out of question, it is for each investor to judge and decide what the fair value for the stock is. I will leave this part to each one of you individually, as I am just a degenerate smooth-brain redditor that doesn’t know shit.
  • MMs (no, not market manipulators, just market makers) - these guys sold a ton of short-dated call options to you and haven’t learned a shit from what happened last Friday. They are going exactly the same path this friday. There are now around 300k of OI that are ITM (probably more by end of today), which translates into 30M shares that need to be found to the option holders by EOD tomorrow.
  • SS (no, not the nazi troops, just the short sellers) - yeah, you know exactly what’s going on here, since this is the essence of the story. Short sellers borrowed around 70M shares and must get them at any price.

Supply side:

  • Float - these are the shares that are openly traded and exchange hands every day. Around 51M shares (probably less since you all have diamond hands)
  • Share issuance - the company can decide to issue new shares. I believe $GME shelf issuance ammount is around $100M. At yesterday’s share price of $347, that’s only 0.3M shares. But let’s round up to 1M

So what do we get:

Demand = 30M from MMs + 70M from SSs + 10M from bullish investors (this number is out of thin air, I have no clue what it should be). Total demand: 110M

Supply = 51M from float + 1M from share issuance. Total supply: 52M

Demand / Supply ratio: 2.1x

I will let CNBC, Boomerberg, CNN find another security, commodity, bond or whatever that has that demand / supply ratio and then make a judgement on the price for $GME shares.

Finally, the invisible hand is a metaphor introduced by the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith, characterizes the unseen forces that move the free market economy. It is that very invisible hand that came back to slap the shit out of the ‘masters of the universe’ hedge funds that decided to ignore the most basic principles of economics.

If any of the hedge fund dementors read this, note that the free market will always, always humble you and put you back where you belong. Fuck you!

TL;DR: $GME :rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket:

Obligatory: I am not your financial advisor, in fact I am a financial bonehead that likes buying FDs and doesn’t know shit